AGI Timelines & Predictions
Who predicts what, by when — on the record.
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Attributed forecasts as of early 2026: Altman — AGI-relevant systems 'within a few years,' superintelligence worth aiming at; Amodei — 'powerful AI' possibly 2026–27 with transformative effects; Hassabis — roughly 5–10 years to true AGI; Musk — repeatedly earlier; LeCun — human-level needs new architectures, decades plausible; Hinton — shortened his estimates and worries accordingly; surveyed ML researchers' medians sit in the 2040s–2060s and moved earlier after 2022; forecasting platforms cluster in the 2030s. The scenario essay 'AI 2027' dramatized the fast end. Every date here is a quoted claim, not a site prediction — see Future for context.
Comment cela s'articule avec le reste de la chaîne
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Connexes
Sources
AI Impacts expert surveys ↗ · AI 2027 scenario essay ↗
Fiche examinée au 2026-01-15 — voir Méthodologie.